Im reaching out to update you on what the ICRM is doing to offer support during these challenging times. Our analysis accounts for waning immunity and suggests that even if Omicron were to have no impact, the next six months of Delta-driven disease in the United States could be about as severe as the past six months were. One step toward this endpoint could be shifting the focus of public-health efforts from managing case counts to managing severe illnesses and deaths. On the other hand, the epidemiological end of the pandemic might not be reached until 2022 or later if the early vaccine candidates have efficacy or safety issuesor if their distribution and adoption are slow. vaccine trial and interim data from the Moderna trial, both showing efficacy of approximately 95 percent Ci X, Li H, Yu Q, et al. Peter Marks, Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: FDA recommends inclusion of Omicron BA.4/5 component for COVID-19 vaccine booster doses, US Food and Drug Administration, June 30, 2022. (B) Mammalian expression of human codonoptimized SpCas9 (hSpCas9) Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics provide update, November 26, 2021; Pfizers novel COVID-19 oral antiviral treatment candidate, November 5, 2021. Alistair Smout, UK PM Johnson speeds up plan to end COVID self-isolation rule, Reuters, February 9, 2022, reuters.com. From pandemic to endemic, July 1, 2021. Pfizer vaccine efficacy could be a game changer, Cornell University, November 8, 2020, government.cornell.edu. This is not a complete list of possible future variants but some potential options. The National Statement is developed jointly by the National Health and Medical Research Council, the Australian Research Council 3 9. In addition to the direct results of the coronavirus and our precautions, several landmark events took place or were highlighted during COVID-19. The latter is an area of scientific uncertainty, but there is concern that some recovered patients will face long-term effects. Among high-income countries, cases caused by the Delta variant reversed the transition toward normalcy first in the United Kingdom, during June and July of 2021, and subsequently in the United States and elsewhere. 125 From pandemic to endemic, July 1, 2021; Renju Jose, Sydney daily COVID-19 cases hit record high, more troops to enforce lockdown, Reuters, August 13, 2021, reuters.com. Monica Texeira COVID-19 Consumer Healthcare Insights, June 2021. 28 The goal of expanding the trial is to increase data on safety and efficacy and promote a more diverse population, including adolescents as young as 16 years and patients with HIV, hepatitis C, or hepatitis B. Thus, they say, the battle against COVID-19 could be waged on separate fronts, much like those against HIV and some forms of cancer. 164 October 8 NEJM Criticizes Trumps COVID-19 Response; 39 States See Case Spikes, In an editorial published by the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), 34 editors call out the Trump administrations response of the COVID-19 pandemic, stating that leaders have taken a crisis and turned it into a tragedy.. This has prompted some high-income countries to start offering booster doses to high-risk populations or planning for their rollout. Other epidemiologists have called into question those hopeful estimates and note that policy should be based on conservative estimates of herd-immunity thresholds until better information is available. In a clinical trial of 800 people, the treatment significantly reduced virus levels within days. Delta variant: What we know about the science, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, updated August 19, 2021, cdc.gov; Yasmeen Abutaleb, Joel Achenbach, and Carolyn Y. Johnson, The war has changed: Internal CDC document urges new messaging, warns delta infections likely more severe,. The Administration has transitioned an emergency logistics and operational organization into a permanent agency structure at HHS, which has allowed the Administration to build on its progress, retain expertise and skills, and continue providing the necessary tools to the American people during this pandemic and for any future disease outbreaks. The June Issue of Inside ICRM has Arrived! Today, the burden of disease caused by COVID-19 in vaccinated people in the United States is similar to or lower than the average burden of influenza over the last decade, while the risks from COVID-19 to unvaccinated people are significantly higher (Exhibit 2). Read latest breaking news, updates, and headlines. More than 85 poor countries will not have widespread access to coronavirus vaccines before 2023, Economist Intelligence Unit, January 27, 2021, eiu.com. Please email us at: A McKinsey Live event on COVID-19 vaccines are here. Testing has dropped off by an average 68,000 per day, despite death being 8 times more likely in the United States vs in Europe. Charlie Giattino et al., Excess mortality during the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19), Our World in Data, December 7, 2021. The transition to the next normal will mark an important social and economic milestone, and herd immunity will be a more definitive end to the pandemic. 97 He also expressed concern about the alarming levels of inaction., March 13 Trump Declares COVID-19 a National Emergency. St. John's University announces new Academic Partnership with ICRM, https://armacanada.org/home/information-conference/, https://www.icrm.org/form/2021-icrm-board-of-regents-ballo, the National Association of Government Archives and Records Administrators, InfoGov World Expo 2022 onSeptember 27-30, 2022. The timing will probably vary by country, depending on accelerating vaccine supplies, the impact of vaccinations on hospitalization rates, and the occurrence (or not) of new waves driven by new variants. December 18 FDA Signs Off on EUA for Moderna's COVID-19 Vaccine. But it seems likely that purchases of tests (like online searches of flu near me) are an indicator and could provide some advance warning of future waves of the disease. 139 Modernas COVID-19 vaccine candidate meets its primary efficacy endpoint in the first interim analysis of the Phase 3 COVE study, Moderna, November 16, 2020, modernatx.com. Since then, several other vaccines have been authorized for use around the world. March 27 Trump Signs CARES Act Into Law. These factors, combined with limited behavior change from pandemic-weary populationsand the twin accelerants of transmission, holiday travel and gatheringsmeant that Omicron moved through the population with remarkable speed. Its likely that many more infections havent been detected. Since we published our first outlook, on September 21st, the COVID-19 pandemic has raged on, with more than 25 million additional cases and more than 400,000 additional deaths. Nine states set 7-day records for infections, and Wisconsin and Hawaii report a record number for deaths in a 7-day period. What does that mean for your organization?, What workers want is changing. Courtney Britton The authors wish to thank Alizeh Hasham Gangji, Giulio Morina, Konstantinos Tsakalis, and Aurora Xu for their contributions to this article. The FDA does not mention the WHO trial in its risk-benefit assessment of remdesivir, stating that an NIH-backed trial supporting the approval was better suited to assess time to recovery than the WHO-backed trial. The agency recommends that people avoid mingling with people who have not resided in their household for the last 14 days. In any scenario for the future of the COVID-19 pandemic, much depends on the ways in which societies respond. Pfizer and BioNTech conclude Phase 3 study of COVID-19 vaccine candidate, meeting all primary efficacy endpoints, Pfizer, November 18, 2020, pfizer.com. What does it hold in store? Caly L, Druce JD, Catton MG, Jans DA, Wagstaff KM. For this reason, the continued global rollout of COVID-19 vaccines remains an investment in our collective safety as well as an imperative to protect individuals. Our scenario analysis suggests that Omicron-related hospitalizations are likely to continue to decline in the United States and remain at relatively low levels through the spring and summer (Exhibit 2). Most serious cases of COVID-19 would occur in unvaccinated people. 62. Countries might then experience a smaller version of the recent Omicron wave, which might be managed similar to the way societies manage flu on an ongoing basis. Given all of these variables, where do we net out? (A) Engineering of SpCas9 and SpRNase III with NLSs enables import into the mammalian nucleus.GFP indicates green fluorescent protein; scale bars, 10 m. On October 1, 2020, the Institute for Certified Records Managers announced its newest Post Certification Specialty Designation, the CRM/CIGO (Certified Information Governance Officer). Regular features include articles by leading authorities and reports on the latest treatments for diseases. November 11 Indoor Venues Responsible for Much of COVID-19s Spread. HHS says it expects the first doses to be available as early as October 2020; phase 3 clinical studies are underway this summer. Evidence suggests that both natural and vaccine-induced immunity wane over time, particularly against infection. This article presents a new analysis of a range of scenarios based on the infectiousness, immune evasion, and severity of disease caused by the Omicron variant. Not all serosurveys have used random-sampling methodologies. For the United States and the European Union, scenario analysis suggests that the shift may begin in the fourth quarter of 2021 and continue into early 2022 (Exhibit 3). Sufficient doses are likely to be available to vaccinate high-risk populations in the United States in the first half of 2021. 145 141. But several uncertainties could temper the optimism, starting with the duration of immunity. October 28 CMS Issues Vaccine, Treatment Coverage Rules. November 9 FDA Issues EUA for Eli Lillys Antibody Treatment. This is the eighth year of the Women in the Workplace report. 64 Age and sex composition in the United States: 2019, US Census Bureau, accessed November 15, 2020, census.gov. We also look at the effects of boosters, the potential waning of vaccine efficacy, and new oral therapeutics. While data indicate that the most likely scenario is to reach this state on the timelines described above, five risks could delay progress. Read latest breaking news, updates, and headlines. The ivermectin arm had a lower risk of mortality than the standard of care arm (1.2% vs. 4.0%), but this difference was not statistically significant. 51 Europe reports a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases, with numbers growing at a higher rate than they did during the previous peak in March. Twelve months ago, most people werent thinking about COVID-19. Measurements like it can help inform both individual behavior and public policy during the next chapter of the COVID-19 pandemic. 79. While the variant of concern appears to be most widespread in the United Kingdom, it has been detected in over 30 countries, many of which (including the United States) have limited capacity for genetic sequencing. Get the latest health news, diet & fitness information, medical research, health care trends and health issues that affect you and your family on ABCNews.com The poll notes that Biden had the support of 52% of voters on this issue, compared with 39% who supported Trump, with the remaining undecided. BioNTech: watchdogs' requirements may defer planned launch of Omicron shot, Reuters, January 25, 2022, reuters.com. John Farley, FDA updates on Paxlovid for health care providers, US Food and Drug Administration, May 4, 2022. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is provided as 2 shots given 3 weeks apart, but the vaccine must be kept at a temperature of 70 degrees Celsius (94 degrees Fahrenheit), which may make distribution a challenge. Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus - Africa-focused subsampling, Nextstrain, December 11, 2021. Despite still waiting on final data, the Trump administration reportedly agrees to pay $1.5 billion to Moderna for 100 million doses of its vaccine candidate, mRNA-1273, or an average per-dose price of $15. DiNicolantonio JJ, Barroso J, McCarty M. Ivermectin may be a clinically useful anti-inflammatory agent for late-stage COVID-19. Before January 2021, the federal government had insufficient data and sequencing capabilities and was ill-equipped to respond to new variants. AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson announce plans to restart clinical trials for their respective COVID-19 vaccine candidates after they both stopped due to safety concerns. Meanwhile, social tolerance for vaccination incentives and mandates appears to be growing, with more European locations adopting vaccination passes SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England: Technical briefing 31, UK Health Security Agency, December 13, 2021. November 16 Moderna Reveals Vaccine Efficacy Results. The U.S. economy created 6.6 million jobs in 2021 the strongest job growth of any year on record and grew 5.7% in 2021, the fastest pace of economic growth in nearly four decades. This includes supporting efforts such as jumpstarting communications campaigns, providing and supporting vaccinators on the front lines, purchasing cold chain supplies and syringes, paying for shipping and logistics to expedite vaccine delivery to hard-to-reach areas, ensuring people at high risk of hospitalization and deaths like the elderly and immunocompromised are vaccinated, and building vaccine confidence on the ground. The U.S. 86068, science.sciencemag.org; William A. Haseltine, Covid-19 could end up like the fluor worse, Forbes, February 11, 2021, forbes.com; Helen Branswell, How the Covid pandemic ends: Scientists look to the past to see the future, STAT, May 19, 2021, statnews.com. 101. about The June Issue of Inside ICRM has Arrived! A transition toward normalcy is mostly likely in Europe during the late second or third quarter of 2021. The Institute believes the collaboration enhances the overall RIM profession by supplying educated and credentialed professionals to fill employer demand and to advance related careers. In addition, the U.S. government has delivered life-saving resources like oxygen, treatments, PPE, and other essential supplies worth more than $1 billion to countries experiencing outbreaks. SeroTracker, Public Health Agency of Canada, accessed 1/12/21, serotracker.com. The degree to which T-cell cross-reactivity actually immunizes individuals hasnt been proven. Europe splits on Omicron response,. The award was originally created to recognize Alan Andolsen, for his contributions to the ICRM through mentoring. Transitions will be gradual. Meanwhile, the FDA grants an EUA for a second COVID-19 antibody treatment. Some have suggested that particular populations, such as those who are immunocompromised due to HIV or other causes, are disproportionately at risk of incubating new variants. Many governments are employing packages of measuresthat aim to minimize the number of COVID-19 cases and excess mortality while maximizing social and economic degrees of freedom. Expanded global shots-in-arms efforts will require additional funding from Congress. A country in which the elderly are overwhelmingly immune will have much better outcomes than will a similar country where the same level of overall immunity is concentrated in the young. The timing of the end point will vary by country and will be affected by a number of factors: Consider the first and most crucial variables: the arrival of vaccines, their efficacy, and their adoption. but we dont yet know their efficacy, duration of protection, or the policies that will be set around fourth doses. Sharon LaPlant, Secretary/Treasurer (2020-2021) From Q4 2020 to Q1 2021 the probability of herd immunity is negligible. The Trump administration notifies the United Nations of its decision, which would not take effect until 2021 and could be reversed by President-elect Joe Biden. 152 9116. A number of questions and caveats remain. about Inside ICRM Newsletter Article on Benefits of CRM/CIGO! Cases rise countrywide, and 44 states report caseloads surpassing those seen in mid-September. 144. This is an updated look at how the pandemic progressed throughout 2020. 11 From pandemic to endemic, July 1, 2021. 48. Flare-ups and localized epidemics would happen while COVID-19 is managed as an endemic disease, but scenario modeling suggests that these may have less of an effect on the whole of society than the waves seen to date. The Panel recommends against the use of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19, except in clinical trials (AIIa). Delta variant: What we know about the science, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, August 6, 2021, cdc.gov; Yasmeen Abutaleb, Joel Achenbach, and Carolyn Y. Johnson, The war has changed: Internal CDC document urges new messaging, warns delta infections likely more severe,, Christie Aschwanden, Five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible,. Plasticrelated chemicals impact wildlife by entering niche environments and spreading through different species and food chains. 168. Omicron subvariant BA.2 likely to have same severity as original WHO, Reuters, February 2, 2022, reuters.com. Herd immunity to a pathogen is achieved when a sufficient portion of a population is simultaneously immune to prevent sustained transmission. 72. Get information on latest national and international events & more. 159. Third, the duration of vaccine-mediated immunity may prove shorter than anticipated, making it hard to reach the necessary threshold for simultaneous immunity. The safety and efficacy of ivermectin for the prevention and treatment of COVID-19 have been evaluated in clinical trials and observational cohorts. Electronic case reporting was in place for only a handful of states in 2020 and the country could sequence only 3,000 viral isolates per week. Those two factors could advance the timeline, and make Q3 a little more likely than Q4. It is now harder to imagine the United States or United Kingdom transitioning to normalcy before second quarter 2021 or reaching herd immunity before third quarter 2021. America will stockpile new categories of supplies including at-home tests, antiviral pills, and masks for the general population for the first time. Further, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) noted on December 12, 2021, that 776 cases were within its remit and all cases for which there is available information on severity were either asymptomatic or mild. Higher scores mean that more people have immunity and that the community has greater protection against symptomatic disease. 156 The authors wish to thank Xavier Azcue for his contributions to this article. The recently published World Health Organization (WHO) Strengthening infection prevention and control in primary care document collates existing standards, WHO IPC Global Webinar Series in celebration of WAAW 2022: Back to the future inspiring the next generation on hand hygiene, Webinar: Results from the Tracking Antimicrobial Resistance Country Self-Assessment Survey (TrACSS) - Quadripartite webinar, Webinar: Antimicrobial resistance, COVID-19 and pandemic preparedness, Webinar: The role of vaccines in preventing AMR, Seventy-fifth World Health Assembly Daily update: 28 May 2022, WHO launches first ever global report on infection prevention and control, 1 in 10 patients get an infection while receiving care, More than 50% of surgical site infections can be antibiotic-resistant. 161 Susan Marin, CRM/CIGORegent, Marketing and Communications (2023-2024) 8469, science.sciencemag.org. The Senate passes the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, providing $2 trillion in aid to hospitals, small businesses, and state and local governments, while including an elimination of the Medicare sequester from May 1 through December 31, 2020. 90 This base-case scenario has the potential to place a severe strain on healthcare systems. Fourth, supply-chain disruptions and delays are real, and could produce supply shocks and interfere with timelines. We would like to remind you that industry related webinars are eligible for CMPs. Nevertheless, recent results from MerckRidgeback Biotherapeutics and Pfizer on their oral drugs molnupiravir and PAXLOVID, respectively (two antivirals, with different mechanisms of action The Administration has put vaccines at the center of our COVID-19 response because vaccines are the best tool we have to prevent hospitalization and death. 86 CMS expands its telehealth rules, permitting use during the COVID-19 pandemic as a means to protect older patients from potential exposure. The percentage of adolescents reporting substance use decreased significantly in 2021, according to the latest results from the Monitoring the Future survey of substance use behaviors and related attitudes among eighth, 10 th, and 12 th graders in the United States. Science brief: Background rationale and evidence for public health recommendations for fully vaccinated people, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, last updated March 8, 2021, cdc.gov. Mathematical models based on social distancing measures implemented in Wuhan, China, show keeping tighter measures in place for longer periods of time can flatten the COVID-19 curve. COVID-19 pandemic by location; Location Cases Deaths World: 632,332,982 6,599,909 European Union: 174,487,164 1,164,346 United States: 97,734,261 1,072,582 India Molecular SARS-CoV-2 Diagnostic Tests for COVID-19 that have been granted a De Novo, 510(k) clearance or PMA. However, if the impact of these variants is significant, we could see timelines significantly prolonging into late 2021 or beyond. Most countries have deferred the hope of achieving herd immunity until the arrival of a vaccine. She actively promotes the importance of the CRM and CRA as well as the importance of becoming a mentor. 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