For example, Russias decision during the second phase of the war to regroup along a southern and eastern front improved Russian lines of communication. Moreover, and except as provided below with respect to NDIA's right and ability to delete or remove a posting (or any part thereof), NDIA does not endorse, oppose, or edit any opinion or information provided by you or another user and does not make any representation with respect to, nor does it endorse the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or reliability of any advice, opinion, statement, or other material displayed, uploaded, or distributed by you or any other user. Ukrainian service members stand in a front of an Antonov An-225 Mriya cargo plane, the world's biggest aircraft, destroyed by Russian troops as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, at an airfield in the settlement of Hostomel, in Kyiv region, Ukraine April 3, 2022. But kill chains will only grow faster as nations develop tighter command systems, such as the U.S. militarys joint all-domain command and control, or JADC2, concept. Sign up to receive The Evening, a daily brief on the news, events, and people shaping the world of international affairs. There is going to be a mix of artillery, Johnson said. To answer the main questions, this analysis relied on several types of information.
In the north, Russia is transitioning into siege tactics around Kyiv, and the immediate risk of Ukrainian defeat seems to have passed. Russia will increasingly target external materiel and personnel support to Ukraine, including humanitarian aid shipments. Some recent footage posted to social media also indicates Russia is still moving forces west towards the border from deeper inside Russia. Another issue highlighted by the Ukraine war is mobility. Over the long run, Russia may face a supply chain challenge because of U.S. and other Western sanctions. Its pilots and air defenses have prevented Russian fighter jets from conquering . Ukrainian leaders no longer need to be persuaded by U.S. advisers. Russia has also constructed defensive fighting positions to make it difficult for Ukraine to counterattack. If youre fighting a competent adversary who really knows how to do cannon fire, you shoot and then you move because theyre going to shoot where you were. This ability to form a uniquely comprehensive foundational intelligence picture Including extracts from Janes Intelligence Briefing series, these webinars provide an exclusive opportunity to delve more deeply into the most topical issues. By There is mounting evidence that Russian forces are becoming more effective in counter-battery fires and have had success in destroying Ukrainian artillery. Ukraines success does not demonstrate that U.S. security assistance works writ large but, rather, that U.S. security assistance is most useful in the cases when those receiving the aid are driven to do whatever it takes to strengthen their forces. At first glance, Russia's initial invasion of Ukraine seemed to suggest a change in the approach of the Russian armed forces. One of the main reasons security assistance has succeeded in buttressing the Ukrainian war effort but failed elsewhere has to do with the motivation of Ukraines leadership. Carla Martinez Machain Ukrainian leaders were motivated enough by Russias aggression to implement some U.S. recommendations, particularly in training, exercise, and arming unitsareas where Kyiv had considerable room for improvement. The author gives special thanks to Grace Hwang, Kateryna Halstead, Jared Thompson, and Catrina Doxsee for their help with research and analysis, particularly with the battlefield map. The latest open-source intelligence on the Russian build up on the Ukrainian border from Janes, Janes Intara - Frequently Asked Questions, View our latest news and analysis on the Ukraine conflict. The Leopard 2 series is also backed up by ongoing R+D, tactical experimentation and large supplies of spare parts. Russia failed to achieve what was likely its main political objective: to overthrow the Kyiv government in a blitzkrieg military operation. The West Needs to Send Ukraine More Arms, More Quickly, How Moscow Squandered Its Power and Influence. Second, the Russian air force faced recurring logistics challenges, including running low on stocks of long-range, precision-guided munitions. Over the previous few years, Russia had invested heavily in electronic warfare systems capable of shutting down communications and signals across a broad spectrum. In that context, the Leopard 2s and other main battle tanks would play a key role in Ukrainian defensive actions and counterattacks. See Media Page for more interview, contact, and citation details. Russian forces came into range of Ukrainian artillery units and exposed more of their depth to raiding.31 Russian forcesalso ran into numerous logistical challenges in their failed effort to seize and hold the city of Kharkiv. In that context, the Leopard 2s and other main battle tanks would play a key role in Ukrainian defensive actions . Ukraine may offer a glimpse into the future of artillery. The Russian military faced considerable operational challenges, in part because of outside state and non-state assistance to Ukraine to identify cyber and electronic warfare attacks, attribute the perpetrators, and assist with remediation. We predict that Odesa is the next target for Russian forces. New Atlanticist is where top experts and policymakers at the Atlantic Council and beyond offer exclusive insight on the most pressing global challengesand the United States role in addressing them alongside its allies and partners. What Ukraine needs now from the United States to beat back the Russian invasion is weapons and ammunition. RFE/RL Analysis of military situation in Ukraine by Michael Kofman, Director of Russia Studies Program at Center for Naval Analyses, New Line Magazine: Open Source data on war in Ukraine, Task & Purpose (site for military journalism) analysis of Russian strategic failures in Ukraine, Institute for Study of War: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Institute for Study of War: UkraineConflict Updates, King's College London: Ukraine war analysis, Harvard Kennedy School: Ukraine war analysis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Council on ForeignRelations Global Conflict Tracker: Ukraine, 2020 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR POLICYDOCTRINE AND ANALYSIS, Russian Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Doctrine (Congressional Research Service), 2020 Russian Federation Presidential Statement on State Nuclear Policy (in Russian), Analysis of 2020 Russian Nuclear Deterrence Policy (from War on the Rocks site), Bulletin of Atomic Scientists 2022 Analysis of Russian Nuclear Weapon Use Policy, Analysis of Russian 202 Nuclear Doctrine with original text in English (from RealClear Defense site), Due to rapidly changing events expect these resources to change and update as circumstances require, Turkey and Middle East Resources on War in Ukraine, https://libguides.gwu.edu/c.php?g=1230210, RFE/RL Analysis of military situation in Ukraine, Russian Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Doctrine, 2020 Russian Federation Presidential Statement on State Nuclear Policy, Analysis of 2020 Russian Nuclear Deterrence Policy, Analysis of Russian 202 Nuclear Doctrine with original text in English, Russia, Eurasia and Central/Eastern Europe. But when U.S. advisers recommended more costly security sector reforms, Ukrainian leaders made only cosmetic changes. Facing an existential threat, Ukrainian authorities and the public became increasingly intolerant of the endemic corruption that has plagued the country since its independence in 1991. Explainer from Borzou Daragahi, International Correspondent for The Independent. In addition, thanks to Mark Cancian, Ben Jensen, Michelle Macander, and Danielle Ngo for their helpful comments on an early draft of the document. But winning back territory will be difficult for Ukraine. Alongside that, they are engaged in an extensive air campaign, aimed at destroying infrastructure, killing civilians and eroding support for the Zelensky government. A highly regarded news source for defense professionals in government and industry, National Defense offers insight and analysis on defense programs, policy, business, science and technology. Since 1945, flying artillery has replaced big guns as the favored source of fire, especially in advanced Western-style militaries such as those of the United States, NATO nations and Israel. Russia will soon turn to Odesa and try to establish a land bridge from Crimea to the Transnistria region of Moldova. Sign up for updates from Forward Defense to hear the latest on the trends, technologies, and military challenges shaping tomorrow. Senior Vice President; Harold Brown Chair; and Director, International Security Program. Russian E95M UAVs, which simulated Russian aircraft, harassed Ukrainian radar to draw out their air defenses.50, Nevertheless, cyber was largely a bust for Russia in the war. By Of course, one significant difference now is that Russia has nuclear weapons. If leaders are not prepared to prioritize institutional reforms that will strengthen their militaries, then foreign support will be of little consequence. and However, the poor American taxpayers will have to pay for all this. It has taken control of critical infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants and steel plants, and rerouted internet through Russia. If you violate this Legal Notice, NDIA may, in its sole discretion, delete the unacceptable content from your posting, remove or delete the posting in its entirety, issue you a warning, and/or terminate your use of the NDIA site. One of the main reasons security assistance has succeeded in buttressing the Ukrainian war effort but failed elsewhere has to do with the motivation of Ukraines leadership. On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, setting off the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II. As Figures 3a, 3b, and 3c highlight at Kherson Air Base near Crimea, Russian forces have become entrenched in Ukraine with main battle tanks, self-propelled artillery, electronic warfare systems, multiple rocket launchers, armored fighting vehicles, sophisticated air defense systems, and other systems. In the south, Russia has been more successful, but the offensive has noticeably slowed. the economic response, let slip that he was prioritising 'unity with our allies' over sanctions. They are totally different to the Soviet-designed tanks that the Ukrainian army is used to operating and maintaining. But an enemy with advanced skills and weapons is a different matter. Neither side seems currently placed to inflict decisive damage on the other. When major global news breaks, the Atlantic Councils experts have you covereddelivering their sharpest rapid insight and forward-looking analysis direct to your inbox. Russia has attempted to annex some of this territory through a crude form of state-building. Ukraine has also implemented reforms that had nothing to do with U.S. security assistance. In addition, Elon Musks company SpaceX activated Starlinka satellite internet constellation that provides high-speed, low-latency broadband internet using advanced satellites in low earth orbitin Ukraine and sent additional network terminals, including over 10,000 dish antennas.56 Starlink enabled members of the Ukrainian military to carry out sophisticated intelligence collection and fire support operations against Russian positions.57 Many of the Starlink kits donated to Ukraine included a 23-inch-wide receiver dish that needed to be mounted outside, as well as a cord that connected to a simple router that projected a Wi-Fi internet signal.58 Starlink helped blunt Russias attempt to jam signals, block the internet, and undermine Ukrainian command and control capabilities. In addition, the tendency of poorly trained Russian forces to conduct massive bombardments of towns and cities in a war of attrition, rather than conducting basic fire and maneuver, will make it difficult to seize and hold substantial territory against entrenched Ukrainian ground units with Western weapons systems and a pipeline of Western logistical support. An analysis by the MoD in April put the Russian death toll at around 15,000. Its out of the question to return the Kherson region back to Nazi Ukraine, said Kirill Stremousov, the Russian-appointed deputy head of the military-civil administration of Kherson region. With such small numbers, the United States and its NATO allies faced a prolonged insurgency that led to the overthrow of the Afghan government in 2021.38 The force ratio of Russian soldiers in Ukraine was far too small to hold territoryincluding citiesfor long. Arlington,
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